http://www.mikeaponte.com/blackjack/basic-strategy/even-money-is-insurance-a-sure-thing/ How Card Counting Can Help You Become an Advantage Player in Life Wed, 23 Nov 2011 20:22:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.mikeaponte.com/blackjack/basic-strategy/even-money-is-insurance-a-sure-thing/comment-page-1/#comment-696 Mike Aponte Thu, 21 Jan 2010 06:34:05 +0000 http://www.mikeaponte.com/?p=1387#comment-696 If your goal is to win over the long run, you should never take insurance, including even money. It is a negative expectation bet, regardless of whether you have a wager of ten dollars or 100 dollars. No matter the amount, the insurance bet favors the house significantly. Ideally you should never bet a large wager based on a betting progression. You may win with a betting progression in the short run but sooner you will get wiped out, which is why casinos love progression players. Over the long run the only thing that determines whether you will win or lose is the expected value of your playing and betting decisions. If you're not getting the best of the odds, the house will always win in the end. If your goal is to win over the long run, you should never take insurance, including even money. It is a negative expectation bet, regardless of whether you have a wager of ten dollars or 100 dollars. No matter the amount, the insurance bet favors the house significantly. Ideally you should never bet a large wager based on a betting progression. You may win with a betting progression in the short run but sooner you will get wiped out, which is why casinos love progression players. Over the long run the only thing that determines whether you will win or lose is the expected value of your playing and betting decisions. If you’re not getting the best of the odds, the house will always win in the end.

]]> http://www.mikeaponte.com/blackjack/basic-strategy/even-money-is-insurance-a-sure-thing/comment-page-1/#comment-693 Arjay Sat, 09 Jan 2010 17:47:36 +0000 http://www.mikeaponte.com/?p=1387#comment-693 It seems to me that the never take insurance rule is certainly valid if you are flat betting. If however, you have an oversize bet out, (such as in some form of progressive wagering) it seems to be counter intuitive to decline even mony when you and the dealer both have a blackjack. If, for example, your normal (or default) wager is ten dollars and you have 100 hundred dollars out as a result of some form of progression, it seems unlikely that you will have the opportunity to recoup the 100 you forgo because of. the "law of averages". It seems to me that the never take insurance rule is certainly valid if you are flat betting. If however, you have an oversize bet out, (such as in some form of progressive wagering) it seems to be counter intuitive to decline even mony when you and the dealer both have a blackjack. If, for example, your normal (or default) wager is ten dollars and you have 100 hundred dollars out as a result of some form of progression, it seems unlikely that you will have the opportunity to recoup the 100 you forgo because of. the “law of averages”.

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